By Wayne Dawkins
HAMPTON – This is an off-election year, yet the climate is hot in New Jersey and Virginia. In the latter testy governor’s race, the only certainty is that for the first time, a woman will lead the commonwealth.
“The [Oct. 9] debate was historic,” said Eric Claville, “the first with two females as head of their major parties and with an African candidate speaking at the largest HBCU in Virginia; a school that bears the name of L. Douglas Wilder the first African American governor. “It was historic. It is progress.”
Claville, professor, and political and legal analyst, was speaking about Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, and Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former Congresswoman representing northern Virginia. The debate venue was Norfolk State University.
“All eyes of the commonwealth and the USA were on the NSU campus,” he said. “Both candidates had clear visions for the commonwealth and talked to their constituents.” Earle-Sears is a U.S. Marine veteran, staunch abortion foe, and supporter of President Donald Trump’s domestic policies.
Spanberger was a member of the other “squad,” not the four progressives, but a quartet of national security-oriented, moderate Democratic members of Congress, in Spanberger’s case a CIA operations officer. She is an abortion advocate and vowed to be a check against Trump’s policies.
Since pre-Labor Day when Spanberger ran up double-digit leads in most polls, the race to Tuesday Nov. 4 has narrowed.
On Oct. 22, Newsweek reported Spanberger had a 51% to 43% lead based on 10 recent polls. Meanwhile a Virginia Commonwealth University Poll projected Spanberger ahead 49% to 42% based on eligible voters queried Oct. 6-14.
The U.S. government shutdown – in its 23rd day at this writing – will likely be the deciding factor in the Virginia governor’s race, experts say.
“Is there enough animosity against the president because of the government shutdown?” asked Charles Robinson, Virginia native and political journalist with Maryland Public Television. “If the shutdown lasts until Nov. 2 (Sunday before the election) a lot of Republicans are going to go down.”
Virginia is oversubscribed with furloughed government workers and is home to a substantial number of active-duty military members and families who are not sure whether they will receive paychecks. For the military after next week (Nov. 27), said Robinson, the only well Trump can tap is tariff revenues. Trump doesn’t push forward legislation; he issues executive orders, which often take a year to litigate. Also, the commonwealth is home to numerous military contractors are among the shut-out workers but are not eligible for back pay whenever the government reopens.
Furthermore, said Robinson, “there are sovereign state folks in Virginia, a pro-military crowd that often believes no one (i.e. military and police) can do wrong, but they are now asking, is it (tactics and deployments of ICE and National Guard in U.S. cities) legal?”
Or, what’s going to happen with tariffs? Wondered Robinson and Claville. Robinson said Trump speculated that wants to attend the tariff oral arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court, scheduled for Nov. 5, day after the Virginia (and New Jersey) elections. Trump’s trademark potentially unprecedented tease could be a disruptive spectacle.
Among several issues rose to the top of the fierce Virginia governor’s race was the down-ballot race for attorney general between incumbent Republican Jason Millares, and Democratic challenger Jay Jones, Virginia legislator and former prosecutor. Early this month, 4-year-old text messages by Jones were leaked in which he imagined the shooting of the GOP speaker of the Virginia General Assembly where Jones once served.
Jones immediately apologized for what he said – then apologized again during his debate with Millares – but Earle-Sears seized on the distraction and used it to attack Spanberger. At the Oct. 9 debate NSU debate, Earl-Sears aggressively badgered Spanberger to tell Jones to exit the race.
Spanberger denounced what Jones said, but refused to call for Jones’ exit, adding it was not her place to tell him to step aside; voters can make that call on Election Day.
Earle-Sears however, persisted in hectoring her opponent, interrupting Spanberger 40-plus times, even when it was not Republican’s turn to speak.
In response to the onslaught, Spanberger stared straight ahead from the podium, looking away from her opponent.
“An outlier,” said Claville of the text message distraction.
However, Earle-Sears may have a chink in her armor could be her embrace of Trump.
She has praised the president’s social safety net cuts and tax-break windfalls for the super-rich. Sears pined for Trump’s endorsement unlike co-executive Glenn Youngkin, who in 2021 distanced himself from the impeached, Jan. 6 failed-coup instigator.
President Trump gave Sears the cold shoulder – until this week. When the 47th president was in Norfolk for the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Navy he lavishly praised GOP candidates yet was conspicuously silent about Sears.
“Trump is a knowledgeable and strategic person,” answered Claville. “He did not forget to endorse Winsome Sears; he didn’t do it at that time. On Oct. 19 at 2 p.m. on Air Force One, he called Earle-Sears ‘very good,’ and ‘I think she should win’ because Spanberger could not answer the basic questions.”
Yet while Earle-Sears criticized inflammatory text messages by Spanberger’s running mate, the Democrat’s campaign ran attack ads showing Earle-Sears brandishing a semi-automatic rifle, suggesting abortion advocates should be killed.
In the end it is likely the election will be decided by a small sample of the electorate. Many Virginians cast ballots early – in person or by mail – before text messages or lukewarm endorsements occurred this month.
“It’s about those who are registered who won’t get off the coach,” predicted Claville regarding who will win. “It’s about turnout.”
The November 2021 governor’s election resulted in a 51-49% win for Youngkin, who broke an 8-year, two-cycle Democratic winning streak.
In commonwealth Virginia, governors cannot run for re-election.
The writer is a journalism and communications professor and author of the biography of voting rights activist Andrew W. Cooper.
